New Delhi: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday has come at a time when Washington is weighing punitive trade measures against New Delhi for continuing to import discounted Russian crude.The exchange, which reaffirmed India’s support for diplomacy and its commitment to the Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership with Moscow, underscores New Delhi’s delicate balancing act – protecting its energy security through Russian supplies while navigating the risk of additional tariffs from its most important Western partner, the US.
“Prime Minister Narendra Modi received a telephone call today from the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin,” the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) stated in a press release on Monday evening. “President Putin shared his assessment of his meeting with the President of the United States, Donald Trump, in Alaska last week. While thanking President Putin, the Prime Minister underlined India’s consistent position for a peaceful resolution of the (Russia-Ukraine) conflict through diplomacy and dialogue.”According to the PMO, Modi reiterated that India supports all efforts in this regard. “The two leaders also touched upon a number of issues of bilateral cooperation with a view to further strengthening the Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership between India and Russia,” it stated. “The two leaders agreed to remain in close touch.”This diplomatic interaction takes on particular importance in the context of US policy toward nations that import Russian crude.
Trump has already imposed higher tariffs on Russian energy flows and has announced additional tariffs or punitive trade measures to countries, significantly India – 25 per cent above the earlier announced 25 per cent – which have continued large-scale oil purchases from Russia despite Western sanctions pressure. The Modi-Putin call, therefore, must be seen not just as a reaffirmation of bilateral ties but also as part of India’s broader strategic response to a potentially hostile US economic move.When Western nations, led by the US and the European Union (EU), imposed sweeping sanctions on Moscow following the Ukraine war in 2022, Russia redirected its energy exports toward Asian markets. India, one of the world’s largest oil importers, seized the opportunity to buy Russian crude at significant discounts.
By 2023–24, Russia had surpassed Iraq and Saudi Arabia to become India’s largest crude supplier, accounting for more than one-third of total imports.This move has been central to India’s economic strategy. It kept inflation under control at a time of global energy volatility. It strengthened India’s refining sector, which re-exported petroleum products to Western markets. And it also reinforced New Delhi’s principle of “strategic autonomy” by refusing to align with Western sanctions.
This move has been central to India’s economic strategy. It kept inflation under control at a time of global energy volatility. It strengthened India’s refining sector, which re-exported petroleum products to Western markets. And it also reinforced New Delhi’s principle of “strategic autonomy” by refusing to align with Western sanctions.From Moscow’s perspective, India became a crucial buyer that cushioned the blow of losing European markets, thereby sustaining Russian oil revenues. The US rationale for targeting Indian oil imports from Russia stems from three main concerns. Even though discounted, large-scale purchases by India provide Russia with vital revenue streams that Washington wants to curtail.The US fears that Indian refiners may effectively “launder” Russian oil by re-exporting refined products to Europe and other markets.
As India grows closer to the US in security and technology partnerships, Washington may seek to tighten the screws on areas where New Delhi diverges, particularly energy ties with Russia.Additional tariffs on Indian exports to the US could be one mechanism to dissuade India from overreliance on Russian oil. Such measures might be framed as defending American refiners from “unfair competition” or as a geopolitical tool to align India more closely with Western sanctions policy.If the US proceeds with additional tariffs targeting India for its crude imports from Russia, the consequences would be significant. Indian exports to the US, which reached over $120 billion in 2024, could suffer. Sectors like textiles, IT services, and pharmaceuticals, which are pillars of India’s trade with the US, might face higher duties.Such tariffs would indirectly raise the cost of Russian crude for India, as the government or refiners would have to absorb the impact of potential retaliatory measures.
India depends on imports for more than 80 per cent of its crude needs. Any disruption or cost escalation could affect domestic inflation, fuel prices, and industrial competitiveness.While alternatives exist like West Asia, US shale and African nations, these sources are costlier than Russian oil under current discounts. Tariffs would complicate India-US ties, especially when both countries emphasise their partnership to counterbalance China. Such measures could strengthen India-Russia relations further, as Moscow would likely offer deeper discounts to keep India on board.For India, securing affordable energy is tied to broader promises of economic stability and growth. Any perception that US tariffs are hurting Indian consumers could generate nationalist pushback, reinforcing calls for strategic autonomy.Seen against this backdrop, Modi’s conversation with Putin serves several purposes. India will not abandon Russian energy despite Western pressure. By invoking dialogue and peace, Modi indirectly signalled that India rejects coercive economic measures.
The timing of the call, shortly after Putin’s meeting with Trump, underscores that India will engage all sides but will not compromise its national interest in energy security. With tariffs looming, India may use this moment to lock in more favourable crude contracts with Russia, insulating itself from potential US trade penalties.“The Modi-Putin conversation is something of great value in the current geopolitical challenges that India is facing,” Abhinav Pandya, founder, director and CEO of the Udaipur-based Usanas Foundation think tank, told ETV Bharat. “It is in line with India’s policy of multi-alignment. Since India’s relationship with the US is getting strained because of the tariff issues and the idiosyncratic behaviour of Donald Trump, India is diversifying and India is hedging its bets by building stronger ties with Russia and China.”Pandya explained that with Russia, India already has a civilisational and historical relationship. Even during the Cold War, India was a close ally of Russia and Russia supported India during the 1971 war. So, there is already a strong history behind this.“This phone call again reaffirms that this India-Russia relationship is an all-weather friendship and robust and rock-solid friendship,” he said. Pandya further stated that since Trump is getting more belligerent against India by declaring the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and Tehrik—e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) as foreign terrorist organisations, and openly coming in Pakistan’s support, India needs more friends.“We need to build more on our strengths. Russia is definitely one of our strengths,” he said. “This phone call also needs to be seen in the light of the upcoming visit of Putin (to India) in November. India, Russia and China can play an important role in a multipolar world.”Basically, Monday’s Modi–Putin call symbolises India’s resolve to sustain its Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership with Moscow even as Washington sharpens its stance on Russian crude. Ironically, the conversation followed President Donald Trump’s red-carpet welcome for Putin in Alaska, an event that appeared to rehabilitate Russia’s international image. For India, however, the US threat of additional tariffs on its exports remains real, exposing the contradictions of a world where Moscow is courted in Washington yet penalised through trade pressure when New Delhi buys its oil.This comes even as Trump will be holding a crucial meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House later Monday night. What can India expect? Watch this space.